After the COVID-19 crisis… what will our world be like? Of course, this is an open question and can be answered in a variety of perspectives. Various issues And various assumptions.
We hope that these views will be of great interest to all readers. To adapt to the trends that may arise in the future Understand the changes in the world and can adapt in a timely manner for prepare your mind for the lifestyle that may change or to adjust investment strategies Be careful of risks that may affect investment.
“New Normal” lifestyle after COVID-19 crisis
The first thing that is most noticeable It is expected that everyone must be directly involved. Lifestyle that must be changed into the so-called “New Normal” or “New Normal” until the world discovers an effective anti-vaccine or vaccine capable of producing adequate quantities for the world’s population. But what is the New Normal life?
The “New Normal” life is a life where you have to wear a mask every time you go out. Various locations must be temperature checked and sanitized at all times. The work will be a Work From Home, which has more online meetings. School systems around the world are increasingly adopting e-learning, as events where large numbers of people gather may drop in popularity, including congested cinemas and sports events.
The next question is: How long will we live in a “New Normal” life? As long as the anti-COVID-19 scene measure has not yet been found, the daily precautions and the aforementioned events will remain with us. Until a drug or vaccine is discovered that is effective and must be sufficient for the entire world.
What kind of business might be disrupt?
If we overlook the long-term Covid-19 crisis, when people do not worry about the risk of this epidemic We believe this COVID-19 event serves as the catalyst for many trends that were originally believed to take years to come.
(Fig. 1) An example of a disrupt business is as follows:
I. shopping mall Probably one of the first businesses to be hit hard. Due to the Lockdown, the city makes
Consumers have seen convenience and change their shopping behavior or doing all kinds of business activities through Mobile Application. The need to go to the mall to buy things or do financial transactions is reduced so department stores need to adjust. Structure itself as a place to do various activities. Allow people to spend time together It could be an exhibit Or go to dine etc. However The popularity of going to shopping malls of Thai people is likely to remain, or decrease, not as much as abroad. Because with the hot weather of our house Including a place that is a place to do family activities together
II. Another business that is likely to be disrupted in the long run is the office in crisis.
COVID-19 has shown that it is effective for a portion of its employees to work at home and online meetings. The company tends to consider reducing office space to reduce costs. And to increase competitiveness during recovery and in the long run This will reduce the need for office space. A survey of 317 CFOs of research firm Gartner found that 74% of companies plan their employees to work at home permanently.
III. Airline Business And aircraft manufacturers The same Even in the long run, air travel will return to normal.
But the revenue that accounts for a high percentage of the airline business in a large country like the United States. Came from travel related to business (Business Travel), which later on Companies or people in this group will be more accustomed to dealing with businesses online. The need for travel will be reduced. Not only that, the hotel business will also be affected. This is because room and conference room revenue from this high percentage of business travel customers will disappear.
IV. The oil business is another group that will be hit by this crisis.
accelerating to the end of the so-called. Fossil fuel energy is faster and accelerates the trend of greener clean energy to be developed and become more popular. Which the main reason is Aircraft passenger traffic, which uses large amounts of fossil fuels, will decrease as previously mentioned. And this crisis has made people more aware of the importance of the environment. For example, in India, COVID-19 gave India the open sky. And the Himalayan peaks can be seen for the first time in these 30 years, with more capital flowing out of the oil business and flowing into alternative energy businesses or ESG Driven businesses.
V. The pharmaceutical sector (Private Pharmaceutical Firm), this event will give governments around the world recognize the importance of public health.
Adequate dosage And developing more drugs or vaccines We will see governments take a more active role in drug development and production, rather than the private companies seen today. Because the public health risk is the most important aspect of the government While for the private sector Expedited investment, development or production will only be done when the opportunity for profit is seen.
What types of businesses will benefit?
As the word ‘crisis’ in Chinese, the first letter means danger. The latter letter represents opportunity. Which means that in every crisis there is an opportunity
I. Technology group It is the group that we are most likely to see clearly.
This group covers from Business structure adjustments to use more technology (Digital Transformation) whether it is the use of robots in production. Storage and management of data in the cloud Using AI to design and manage the company’s supply chain, 5G technology after the crisis will make businesses more focused on cost reduction. Increase efficiency and reduce or manage unexpected risks.
For example, using robots instead of humans may be cost-effective, as current prices are much cheaper and there is no need to close the factory if a worker is infected with an epidemic. This trend includes more life in the online world, such as e-commerce business or online conferencing, etc. These will benefit from changing people’s behavior.
II. Asset Management Company (Asset Management Company) and Financial Advisory Company for both companies and individuals.
As a group of companies affected around the world will pay more attention to risk management. It will turn to add more liquidity to their own business. It may have been thought that these were all very indomitable and unnecessary. Similar to the individual level The importance of financial knowledge Financial planning and savings will be more. These will support saving money in mutual funds and financial advisory companies.
III Proper. The Telemedicine / Telehealth Medical call systemWhich is a system for providing online medical treatment.
Which the patient does not need to travel to the hospital Both doctors and patients can chat and communicate via Online Application, although it may not be seen in Thailand yet. But in the US it is becoming more and more popular. Especially during the COVID-19 incidents that make people unnecessarily want to go to the hospital.
Make people learn More open-minded, accepting online doctor visits, similar to online trading habits that many people are not yet comfortable. For example,Teladoc Health Inc in the United States, doing this kind of business. During 2017-2019, the company’s annual revenue grew 73% from $ 200 million to $ 600 million. We think that in the future there will be hospitals.
More companies doing this kind of service business Because it meets the needs of safety, convenience, speed, time saving, and also able to reach patients in remote areas.
In conclusion, the question after COVID-19… What will the world be like? The first is a new “New Normal” lifestyle, and the second is that we view COVID-19 as a catalyst for the long-term structural change trend that we all believed in the past. This is coming.
Finally, we advise investors Focus on a long-term investment perspective By investing carefully Proper diversification And use the timing of the stock market volatility Gradually investing in business trends that are likely to benefit from structural shifts in human lifestyles and long-term economic conditions.